Housing Market Analysis & Outlook for GTA
Prepared by Luke Tao
February 19, 2022
Demand for ownership housing remained very strong from a historic perspective in January 2022. The average selling price was up by 28.6% year-over-year to $1,242,793. Listings remained in short supply, resulting in tight market conditions and very strong year-over-year price growth. There were 5,636 sales reported through the TRREB MLS® System in January 2022 – down by 18.2% compared to 6,888 sales in January 2021. While sales were down substantially compared last year’s record result, the January 2022 result was the second best in history for the month. This result is in line with TRREB’s forecast for a strong sales result in 2022, but off the 2021 record.
New listings were down by a similar annual rate (-15.5%) as sales. Because sales and new listings moved in relative lock step, active listings at the end of January amounted to 4,140 – down by 44% to the lowest level in more than two decades. The continuation of tight market conditions resulted in a 33.3% annual increase in the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark.
Looking Forward, TRREB's outlook for 2022 is as follows: Total home sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in the GTA will reach 110,000, representing a dip from 2021, but still a strong result in comparison to previous years. The average selling price for all home types combined is set to climb to $1,225,000, an approximate increase of 12% when compared to last year.
For a review of the CMHC Market Outlook Report, please click here
Toronto Market Report Infographics
INFOGRAPHICS: April 2023 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
TRREB: GTA SALES AND PRICE CONTINUE TO IMPROVE WHILE LISTINGS REMAIN CONSTRAINED
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued to tighten in April 2023. On a year-over-year basis, sales edged lower compared to April 2022, but new listings were down by more than one-third. Fewer listings relative to sales meant there was more competition between buyers, supporting an improvement in selling prices since the beginning of this year.
“In line with TRREB’s outlook and recent consumer polling results, we are seeing a gradual improvement in sales and average selling price. Many buyers have come to terms with higher borrowing costs and are taking advantage of lower selling prices compared to this time last year. The issue moving forward will not be the demand for ownership housing, but rather the ability to meet this demand with adequate supply. This is a policy issue that requires sustained effort from all levels of government,” said TRREB President Paul Baron.
GTA REALTORS® reported 7,531 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in April 2023 – down by 5.2 per cent compared to April 2022. In comparison to March 2023, sales increased on an actual and seasonally adjusted basis. On a year-over-year basis, new listings were down by 38.3 per cent in April 2023.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between April 2023 and April 2022 numbers, and is current as of May 2023. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – April 2023 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – April 2023 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
INFOGRAPHICS: March 2023 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
TRREB: TIGHT MARKET CONDITIONS PUSH UP COMPETITION IN THE GTA
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market conditions tightened in March 2023. Sales accounted for an increased share of listings in comparison to March 2022, suggesting that competition between buyers is on the rise. The average sale price was above the average list price for the first time since May 2022.
“As we moved through the first quarter, Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) Members were increasingly reporting that competition between buyers was heating up in many GTA neighbourhoods. The most recent statistics bear this out,” said TRREB President Paul Baron. “Recent consumer polling also suggests that demand for ownership housing will continue to recover this year. Look for first-time buyers to lead this recovery, as high average rents move more closely in line with the cost of ownership.”
GTA REALTORS® reported 6,896 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in March 2023 – down 36.5 per cent compared to March 2022. On a month-over-month basis, actual and seasonally adjusted sales were up. New listings were also down on a year-over-year basis, but by a much greater annual rate. This points to tighter market conditions compared to last year.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between March 2023 and March 2022 numbers, and is current as of April 2023. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – March 2023 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – March 2023 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
INFOGRAPHICS: February 2023 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
GTA HOME SALES AND LISTINGS DROP IN FEBRUARY
February sales in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) were down substantially from the pre-rate hike levels of early 2022. However, the number of new listings also dropped substantially year-over-year. The result was that the average selling price and MLS® HPI continued to level off after trending lower through the spring and summer of last year.
“It has been almost a year since the Bank of Canada started raising interest rates. Home prices have dropped over the last year from the record peak in February 2022, mitigating the impact of higher borrowing costs. Many homebuyers have also decided to purchase a lower priced home to help offset higher borrowing costs. The share of home purchases below one million dollars is up substantially compared to this time last year,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.
GTA REALTORS® reported 4,783 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in February 2023 – down 47 per cent compared to February 2022, the last full month before the onset of interest rate hikes. The number of new listings entered into the system was down by a similar annual rate of 40.9 per cent to 8,367.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between February 2023 and February 2022 numbers, and is current as of March 2023. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – February 2023 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – February 2023 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
INFOGRAPHICS: January 2023 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
GTA REAL ESTATE MARKET STARTS THE NEW YEAR THE SAME AS IT ENDED LAST YEAR
As we moved from 2022 into 2023, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market unfolded as expected. The number of January sales and the overall average selling price were similar to December 2022. On a year-over-year basis, both sales and prices were down markedly, continuing to highlight the impact of higher borrowing costs on affordability over the last year.
“Home sales and selling prices appear to have found some support in recent months. This coupled with the Bank of Canada announcement that interest rate hikes are likely on hold for the foreseeable future will prompt some buyers to move off the sidelines in the coming months. Record population growth and tight labour market conditions will continue to support housing demand moving forward,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.
GTA REALTORS® reported 3,100 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2023 – in line with the December 2022 result of 3,110, but down 44.6 per cent from January 2022. The average selling price for January 2023 at $1,038,668 was slightly lower than the December 2022 result and down by 16.4 per cent compared to the January 2022 average price reported before the onset of Bank of Canada interest rate hikes. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was in line with the December result, but down by 14.2 per cent compared to January 2022.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between January 2023 and January 2022 numbers, and is current as of February 2023. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – January 2023 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – January 2023 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
INFOGRAPHICS: December 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
A LOOK BACK AT THE 2022 GTA HOUSING MARKET
The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a marked adjustment in 2022 compared to record levels in 2021. Existing affordability issues brought about by a lack of housing supply were exacerbated by sustained interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.
“Following a very strong start to the year, home sales trended lower in the spring and summer of 2022, as aggressive Bank of Canada interest rate hikes further hampered housing affordability. With no relief from the Office of Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) mortgage stress test or other mortgage lending guidelines including amortization periods, home selling prices adjusted downward to mitigate the impact of higher mortgage rates. However, home prices started levelling off in the late summer, suggesting the aggressive early market adjustment may be coming to an end,” said new Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.
There were 75,140 sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in 2022 – down 38.2 per cent compared to the 2021 record of 121,639. The number of new listings amounted to 152,873 – down 8.2 per cent compared to 166,600 new listings in 2021. Seasonally adjusted monthly data for sales and price data show a marked flattening of the sales and price trends since the late summer.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between December 2022 and December 2021 numbers, and is current as of January 2023. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – December 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – December 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
INFOGRAPHICS: November 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
INTEREST RATE HIKES DRIVE DOWN HOME SALES AND NEW LISTINGS IN NOVEMBER
Homeownership market activity in November continued to be influenced by the impact of higher borrowing costs on affordability. Sales were down markedly compared to the same period last year, following the trend that unfolded since the commencement of interest rate hikes in the spring.
New listings were also down substantially from last year, and at a very low level historically. The fact that the supply of homes for sale has remained low, has supported average selling prices at the $1.08 to $1.09 million mark since August.
Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 4,544 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2022 – down 49 per cent compared to November 2021, but remaining at a similar level to October especially after considering the recurring seasonal downward trend in the fall. New listings, at 8,880, were down on both a year-over-year basis and month-over-month basis.
“Increased borrowing costs represent a short-term shock to the housing market. Over the medium- to long-term, the demand for ownership housing will pick up strongly. This is because a huge share of record immigration will be pointed at the GTA and the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) in the coming years, and all of these people will require a place to live, with the majority looking to buy. The long-term problem for policymakers will not be inflation and borrowing costs, but rather ensuring we have enough housing to accommodate population growth,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between November 2022 and November 2021 numbers, and is current as of December 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – November 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – November 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
INFOGRAPHICS: October 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
New GTA Listings Down While the Average Selling Price Levels off in October
Despite the continued housing market transition to a higher borrowing cost environment, the average selling price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) found some support near $1.1 million since the late summer. GTA home sales continued to adjust to substantially higher interest rates in October 2022, both on an annual and monthly basis. However, new listings are also down year-over-year and month-over-month. The persistent lack of inventory helps explain why the downward trend in home prices experienced in the spring has flattened over the past three months.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between October 2022 and October 2021 numbers, and is current as of November 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – October 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – October 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
INFOGRAPHICS: September 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
GTA REALTORS® Release August Stats
There were 5,627 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Boards (TRREB) MLS® System in August 2022, representing a year-over-year dip of 34.2 per cent 3 a lesser annual rate of decline compared to the previous four months. The August sales result also represented a month-over-month increase compared to July.
Sales represented a higher share of new listings compared to the previous three months. If this trend continues, it could indicate some support for selling prices in the months ahead. On a year-over-year basis, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up by 8.9 per cent and the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 0.9 per cent to $1,079,500. The average selling price was also up slightly month-over-month, while the HPI Composite was lower compared to July. Monthly growth in the average price versus a dip in the HPI Composite suggests a greater share of more expensive home types sold in August.
While higher borrowing costs have impacted home purchase decisions, existing homeowners nearing mortgage renewal are also facing higher costs. There is room for the federal government to provide for greater housing affordability for existing homeowners by removing the stress test when existing mortgages are switched to a new lender, allowing for greater competition in the mortgage market. Further, allowing for longer amortization periods on mortgage renewals would assist current homeowners in an inflationary environment where everyday costs have risen dramatically,= said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between September 2022 and September 2021 numbers, and is current as of October 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – September 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – September 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
INFOGRAPHICS: August 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
GTA REALTORS® Release August Stats
There were 5,627 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Boards (TRREB) MLS® System in August 2022, representing a year-over-year dip of 34.2 per cent 3 a lesser annual rate of decline compared to the previous four months. The August sales result also represented a month-over-month increase compared to July.
Sales represented a higher share of new listings compared to the previous three months. If this trend continues, it could indicate some support for selling prices in the months ahead. On a year-over-year basis, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up by 8.9 per cent and the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 0.9 per cent to $1,079,500. The average selling price was also up slightly month-over-month, while the HPI Composite was lower compared to July. Monthly growth in the average price versus a dip in the HPI Composite suggests a greater share of more expensive home types sold in August.
While higher borrowing costs have impacted home purchase decisions, existing homeowners nearing mortgage renewal are also facing higher costs. There is room for the federal government to provide for greater housing affordability for existing homeowners by removing the stress test when existing mortgages are switched to a new lender, allowing for greater competition in the mortgage market. Further, allowing for longer amortization periods on mortgage renewals would assist current homeowners in an inflationary environment where everyday costs have risen dramatically,= said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between August 2022 and August 2021 numbers, and is current as of September 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – August 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – August 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
INFOGRAPHICS: July 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports
GTA Home Sales and Listings Trend Downwards in July
There were 4,912 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS® System in July 2022 – down by 47 per cent compared to July 2021. Following the regular seasonal trend, sales were also down compared to June.
New listings also declined on a year-over-year basis in July, albeit down by a more moderate four per cent. The expectation is that the trend for new listings will continue to follow the trend for sales, as we move through the second half of 2022 and into 2023.
Market conditions remained much more balanced in July 2022 compared to a year earlier. As buyers
continued to benefit from more choice, the annual rate of price growth has moderated. The MLS®
Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 12.9 per cent year-over-year. The average
selling price was up by 1.2 per cent compared to July 2021 to $1,074,754. Less expensive home types,
including condo apartments, experienced stronger rates of price growth as more buyers turned to these segments to help mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs.
Read the full report on TRREB website!
The following data is a comparison between July 2022 and July 2021 numbers, and is current as of August 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!
Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!
Download Printable Version – June 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1
Download Printable Version – June 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2
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