GTA Market Watch Outlook

Prepared by Luke Tao, Broker
January 13th, 2020


Highlights

  • Condominium apartment starts will dominate new home construction
  • Annual sales growth in all type of homes including detached houses which led the way
  • The average apartment vacancy rate will reach a historic low

1. GTA Housing Market Analysis & Outlook for 2020
 

Toronto Real Estate Board reported that residential sales (Demand) were up by 17.4% year-over-year to 4,399 last month – December 2019. Total sales for calendar year 2019 amounted to 87,825 – up by 12.6% compared to the decade low 78,015 sales reported in 2018. On an annual basis, 2019 sales were in line with the median annual sales result for the past decade.


It has been a definite recovery in sales activity in 2019, particularly in the second half of the year.  As anticipated, many home buyers who were initially on the sidelines moved back into the market place starting in the spring. Buyer confidence was buoyed by a strong regional economy and declining contract mortgage rates over the course of the year.  new listings (Supply) continue to be very low comparative to the sales – new listings in December 2019 has dropped by -18.1% compared to same period in 2018, triggering a continue price surge for homes in all categories including the detached and semi-detached homes which were down between April 2017 and most of 2018.


Over the last ten years, TREB has been drawing attention to the housing supply issue in the GTA. Increasingly, policy makers, research groups of varying scope and other interested parties have acknowledged that the lack of a diverse supply of ownership and rental housing continues to hamper housing affordability in the GTA.  Expect further acceleration in 2020 if there is no relief on the supply front.


The MLS® Home Price Index Composite Benchmark was up by 7.3% on a year-over-year basis in December 2019. From June 2019 onward, the annual growth rate in the MLS® HPI Composite Benchmark accelerated. The average selling price in December 2019 was $837,788 – up almost 12% year-over-year. For calendar year 2019, the average selling price was $819,319 – up by 4% compared to $787,856 in 2018.

 

Toronto Market Report Infographics

Tuesday, February 11, 2020 7:21:36 PM UTC
INFOGRAPHICS: January 2020 TRREB / TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: January 2020 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

NOTE: The Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB) has recently rebranded, and is now known as the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB). For more information, please refer to the official announcement on TRREB.ca.

 


 

Here are the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB, formerly TREB)!

In their most recent market update, TRREB President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 4,581 home sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2020 – up by 15.4% compared to January 2019. On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, sales were up by 4.8% compared to December 2019. Collins notes,

 

“We started 2020 where 2019 left off, with very strong growth in the number of sales up against...

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INFOGRAPHICS: December 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: December 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports

2020 is finally here! And here are the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)!

As per TREB’s latest market report, December 2019 residential sales reported through TREB’s MLS® System by Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® were up by 17.4% year-over-year to 4,399. Total sales for calendar year 2019 amounted to 87,825 – up by 12.6% compared to the decade low 78,015 sales reported in 2018. On an annual basis, 2019 sales were in line with the median annual sales result for the past decade.

While sales were up in 2019, the number of new listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System was down by 2.4% year-over-year. For the past decade, annual new listings have been largely in a holding pattern between 150,000 and 160,000, despite the upward...

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INFOGRAPHICS: November 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: November 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports

And just like that, an entire year has zipped by. Are you ready to welcome the new year? For now, here are the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)!

According to their most recent market report, TREB President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,090 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in November 2019 – a 14.2 per cent increase compared to November 2018. On a GTA-wide basis, sales were up year-over-year for all major market segments. Annual sales growth in ground oriented home types, including detached houses, led the way.

According to Collins,

“An increasing number of home buyers impacted by demand-side policies over the past three years, including the 2017 Ontario Fair Housing Plan and the...

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INFOGRAPHICS: October 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: October 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports

Ready for the winter? Here are the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)!

As noted in their latest media release, Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,491 residential sales through TREB’s MLS® System in October 2019. This result represented a 14 per cent increase compared to 7,448 sales reported in October 2018. GTA-wide, sales were up on a year-over-year basis for all major home types.

The trend of annual growth in sales versus annual decline in new listings continued in October 2019, with new listings down by 9.6 per cent compared to October 2018. The resulting tighter market conditions compared to a year ago resulted in positive annual rates of price growth across...

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INFOGRAPHICS: September 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: September 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports

The season is starting to cool down, and with that, here are the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)!

In their latest market report, TREB has announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 7,825 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in September 2019. This result represented strong year-over-year sales growth of 22% compared to 6,414 sales reported in September 2018. It is important to note, however, that sales remain well-below the record September 2016 peak of more than 9,800 sales.

On a preliminary seasonally adjusted basis, the September 2019 sales level remained in virtually the same as the August 2019 result.

According to Toronto Real Estate Board President Michael Collins,

“Demand for ownership housing increased throughout...

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INFOGRAPHICS: August 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: August 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports

The summer months just zoomed by, and here we are at the beginning of a new season! With that, here are the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)!

According to their most recent media release, TREB has reported 7,711 residential sales in August 2019. This result represented a 13.4% increase compared to 6,797 sales reported in August 2018. On a month-over-month basis, after preliminary seasonal adjustment, sales were up by 0.8%.

Market conditions also became tighter in August 2019 compared to a year ago because, while sales were up year-over-year, new listings were down by 3% over the same time period to 11,789. Year-to-date, growth in sales has well outstripped growth in new listings. This is why overall active listings counted at the end...

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INFOGRAPHICS: July 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: July 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports

We’re now squarely into the third quarter of the year, and here are the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)!

In their most recent market report, Board President Michael Collins announced that Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,595 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in July 2019. This result was up by 24.3% compared to July 2018. On a month-over-month basis, sales were up by 5.1%, after preliminary seasonal adjustment.

New listings entered into TREB’s MLS® System in July 2019 were up compared to July 2018, but by a much lesser annual rate than sales, at 3.7%. With annual growth in sales far outstripping annual growth in new listings, market conditions clearly tightened compared to last year. Active listings at the...

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INFOGRAPHICS: June 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: June 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports

Summer is starting out strong for the Toronto area! Here’s the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)!

In their most recent market report, Greater Toronto Area REALTORS® reported 8,860 sales through TREB’s MLS® System in June 2019, representing a 10.4% increase compared to June 2018. Over the same time period, total new listings remained at a similar level for the month of June and active listings at month-end were down by 5.7%.

Sales and new listings statistics for the first half of 2019 compared to the same period in 2018 painted a similar story to that of June. Sales were up by 8.5%, while new listings were up by less than 1%. This shows that sales accounted for a greater share of listings compared to last year, which means...

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INFOGRAPHICS: May 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: May 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports

Here’s some good news for June, as we have the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)!

As noted in their latest market update, TREB REALTORS® reported 9,989 transactions through TREB’s MLS® System in May 2019. While this result represented a substantial increase of 18.9% over the 15-year low in May 2018, it should be noted that the result was still below the average for month of May sales for the previous ten years, which stands at almost 10,300.

The year-over-year uptick in sales experienced so far in the second quarter of 2019 reflects spring polling results from Ipsos (undertaken on behalf of TREB) suggesting that the share of likely home buyers in the Greater Toronto Area has edged upwards since the fall.

Board President Garry...

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INFOGRAPHICS: April 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports
INFOGRAPHICS: April 2019 TREB Toronto Market Reports

April has been a good month for sales! Here are the latest real estate market updates for areas covered by the Toronto Real Estate Board (TREB)!

As noted in TREB’s most recent market update, a substantial year-over-year increase in home sales in April 2019 has been announced by board President Garry Bhaura. The number of residential transactions jumped by 16.8% to 9,042 compared to 7,744 in April 2018.

New listings were also up year-over-year by eight per cent. However, the annual growth rate for new listings was much lower than that reported for sales. This suggests that market conditions continued to tighten which points toward an acceleration in price growth.

Toronto Real Estate BoardGarry Bhaura remarks,

 

“The strong year-over-year growth in sales is obviously a good news story and likely represents...

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