Housing Market Analysis & Outlook for GTA

Prepared by Luke Tao

February 19, 2022



Demand for ownership housing remained very strong from a historic perspective in January 2022. The average selling price was up by 28.6% year-over-year to $1,242,793. Listings remained in short supply, resulting in tight market conditions and very strong year-over-year price growth. There were 5,636 sales reported through the TRREB MLS® System in January 2022 – down by 18.2% compared to 6,888 sales in January 2021. While sales were down substantially compared last year’s record result, the January 2022 result was the second best in history for the month. This result is in line with TRREB’s forecast for a strong sales result in 2022, but off the 2021 record.


New listings were down by a similar annual rate (-15.5%) as sales. Because sales and new listings moved in relative lock step, active listings at the end of January amounted to 4,140 – down by 44% to the lowest level in more than two decades. The continuation of tight market conditions resulted in a 33.3% annual increase in the MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark.
Looking Forward, TRREB's outlook for 2022 is as follows: Total home sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in the GTA will reach 110,000, representing a dip from 2021, but still a strong result in comparison to previous years. The average selling price for all home types combined is set to climb to $1,225,000, an approximate increase of 12% when compared to last year.

















For a review of the CMHC Market Outlook Report, please click here

Toronto Market Report Infographics

Monday, February 6, 2023 8:38:03 PM UTC
INFOGRAPHICS: January 2023 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

GTA REAL ESTATE MARKET STARTS THE NEW YEAR THE SAME AS IT ENDED LAST YEAR

As we moved from 2022 into 2023, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market unfolded as expected. The number of January sales and the overall average selling price were similar to December 2022. On a year-over-year basis, both sales and prices were down markedly, continuing to highlight the impact of higher borrowing costs on affordability over the last year.

“Home sales and selling prices appear to have found some support in recent months. This coupled with the Bank of Canada announcement that interest rate hikes are likely on hold for the foreseeable future will prompt some buyers to move off the sidelines in the coming months. Record population growth and tight labour market conditions will continue to support housing demand moving forward,” said Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

GTA REALTORS® reported 3,100 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in January 2023 – in line with the December 2022 result of 3,110, but down 44.6 per cent from January 2022. The average selling price for January 2023 at $1,038,668 was slightly lower than the December 2022 result and down by 16.4 per cent compared to the January 2022 average price reported before the onset of Bank of Canada interest rate hikes. The MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was in line with the December result, but down by 14.2 per cent compared to January 2022.

Read the full report on TRREB website!


The following data is a comparison between January 2023 and January 2022 numbers, and is current as of February 2023. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!

Download Printable Version – January 2023 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1

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INFOGRAPHICS: December 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

A LOOK BACK AT THE 2022 GTA HOUSING MARKET

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market experienced a marked adjustment in 2022 compared to record levels in 2021. Existing affordability issues brought about by a lack of housing supply were exacerbated by sustained interest rate hikes by the Bank of Canada.

“Following a very strong start to the year, home sales trended lower in the spring and summer of 2022, as aggressive Bank of Canada interest rate hikes further hampered housing affordability. With no relief from the Office of Superintendent of Financial Institutions (OSFI) mortgage stress test or other mortgage lending guidelines including amortization periods, home selling prices adjusted downward to mitigate the impact of higher mortgage rates. However, home prices started levelling off in the late summer, suggesting the aggressive early market adjustment may be coming to an end,” said new Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) President Paul Baron.

There were 75,140 sales reported through TRREB’s MLS® System in 2022 – down 38.2 per cent compared to the 2021 record of 121,639. The number of new listings amounted to 152,873 – down 8.2 per cent compared to 166,600 new listings in 2021. Seasonally adjusted monthly data for sales and price data show a marked flattening of the sales and price trends since the late summer.

Read the full report on TRREB website!

 


 

The following data is a comparison between December 2022 and December 2021 numbers, and is current as of January 2023. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!

 

Download Printable Version – December 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1

 

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INFOGRAPHICS: November 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

INTEREST RATE HIKES DRIVE DOWN HOME SALES AND NEW LISTINGS IN NOVEMBER

Homeownership market activity in November continued to be influenced by the impact of higher borrowing costs on affordability. Sales were down markedly compared to the same period last year, following the trend that unfolded since the commencement of interest rate hikes in the spring.

New listings were also down substantially from last year, and at a very low level historically. The fact that the supply of homes for sale has remained low, has supported average selling prices at the $1.08 to $1.09 million mark since August.

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) REALTORS® reported 4,544 sales through TRREB’s MLS® System in November 2022 – down 49 per cent compared to November 2021, but remaining at a similar level to October especially after considering the recurring seasonal downward trend in the fall. New listings, at 8,880, were down on both a year-over-year basis and month-over-month basis.

“Increased borrowing costs represent a short-term shock to the housing market. Over the medium- to long-term, the demand for ownership housing will pick up strongly. This is because a huge share of record immigration will be pointed at the GTA and the Greater Golden Horseshoe (GGH) in the coming years, and all of these people will require a place to live, with the majority looking to buy. The long-term problem for policymakers will not be inflation and borrowing costs, but rather ensuring we have enough housing to accommodate population growth,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

Read the full report on TRREB website!

 


 

The following data is a comparison between November 2022 and November 2021 numbers, and is current as of December 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!

 

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INFOGRAPHICS: October 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

New GTA Listings Down While the Average Selling Price Levels off in October

Despite the continued housing market transition to a higher borrowing cost environment, the average selling price in the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) found some support near $1.1 million since the late summer. GTA home sales continued to adjust to substantially higher interest rates in October 2022, both on an annual and monthly basis. However, new listings are also down year-over-year and month-over-month. The persistent lack of inventory helps explain why the downward trend in home prices experienced in the spring has flattened over the past three months.

Read the full report on TRREB website!

 


 

The following data is a comparison between October 2022 and October 2021 numbers, and is current as of November 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!

 

Download Printable Version – October 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1

 

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INFOGRAPHICS: September 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

GTA REALTORS® Release August Stats

There were 5,627 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Boards (TRREB) MLS® System in August 2022, representing a year-over-year dip of 34.2 per cent 3 a lesser annual rate of decline compared to the previous four months. The August sales result also represented a month-over-month increase compared to July.

Sales represented a higher share of new listings compared to the previous three months. If this trend continues, it could indicate some support for selling prices in the months ahead. On a year-over-year basis, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up by 8.9 per cent and the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 0.9 per cent to $1,079,500. The average selling price was also up slightly month-over-month, while the HPI Composite was lower compared to July. Monthly growth in the average price versus a dip in the HPI Composite suggests a greater share of more expensive home types sold in August.

While higher borrowing costs have impacted home purchase decisions, existing homeowners nearing mortgage renewal are also facing higher costs. There is room for the federal government to provide for greater housing affordability for existing homeowners by removing the stress test when existing mortgages are switched to a new lender, allowing for greater competition in the mortgage market. Further, allowing for longer amortization periods on mortgage renewals would assist current homeowners in an inflationary environment where everyday costs have risen dramatically,= said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

Read the full report on TRREB website!

 


 

The following data is a comparison between September 2022 and September 2021 numbers, and is current as of October 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!

 

Download Printable Version – September 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1

 

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INFOGRAPHICS: August 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

GTA REALTORS® Release August Stats

There were 5,627 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Boards (TRREB) MLS® System in August 2022, representing a year-over-year dip of 34.2 per cent 3 a lesser annual rate of decline compared to the previous four months. The August sales result also represented a month-over-month increase compared to July.

Sales represented a higher share of new listings compared to the previous three months. If this trend continues, it could indicate some support for selling prices in the months ahead. On a year-over-year basis, the MLS® Home Price Index (HPI) was up by 8.9 per cent and the average selling price for all home types combined was up by 0.9 per cent to $1,079,500. The average selling price was also up slightly month-over-month, while the HPI Composite was lower compared to July. Monthly growth in the average price versus a dip in the HPI Composite suggests a greater share of more expensive home types sold in August.

While higher borrowing costs have impacted home purchase decisions, existing homeowners nearing mortgage renewal are also facing higher costs. There is room for the federal government to provide for greater housing affordability for existing homeowners by removing the stress test when existing mortgages are switched to a new lender, allowing for greater competition in the mortgage market. Further, allowing for longer amortization periods on mortgage renewals would assist current homeowners in an inflationary environment where everyday costs have risen dramatically,= said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

Read the full report on TRREB website!

 


 

The following data is a comparison between August 2022 and August 2021 numbers, and is current as of September 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!

 

Download Printable Version – August 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1

 

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INFOGRAPHICS: July 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

GTA Home Sales and Listings Trend Downwards in July

There were 4,912 home sales reported through the Toronto Regional Real Estate Board (TRREB) MLS® System in July 2022 – down by 47 per cent compared to July 2021. Following the regular seasonal trend, sales were also down compared to June.

New listings also declined on a year-over-year basis in July, albeit down by a more moderate four per cent. The expectation is that the trend for new listings will continue to follow the trend for sales, as we move through the second half of 2022 and into 2023.

Market conditions remained much more balanced in July 2022 compared to a year earlier. As buyers
continued to benefit from more choice, the annual rate of price growth has moderated. The MLS®
Home Price Index (HPI) Composite Benchmark was up by 12.9 per cent year-over-year. The average
selling price was up by 1.2 per cent compared to July 2021 to $1,074,754. Less expensive home types,
including condo apartments, experienced stronger rates of price growth as more buyers turned to these segments to help mitigate the impact of higher borrowing costs.

Read the full report on TRREB website!

 


 

The following data is a comparison between July 2022 and July 2021 numbers, and is current as of August 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!

 

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INFOGRAPHICS: June 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

GTA REALTORS® Release June Stats

Higher borrowing costs continued to impact home sales in June 2022. Sales totalled 6,474 – down by 41 per cent compared to last year’s strong result. The number of transactions was also down compared to May 2022, but this is often the case due to the seasonal nature of the market.

The average selling price, at $1,146,254, remained 5.3 per cent above the June 2021 level, but continued to trend lower on a monthly basis. The MLS® Home Price Index Composite benchmark was up by 17.9 per cent year-over-year, but also experienced a month-over-month dip compared to May. Annual price growth was driven more so by less expensive market segments, including townhouses and condominium apartments.

Read the full report on TRREB website!

 


 

The following data is a comparison between June 2022 and June 2021 numbers, and is current as of July 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!

 

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INFOGRAPHICS: May 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

Market Continues to Balance out as Borrowing Costs Trend Higher

Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market conditions continued to evolve in response to higher borrowing costs. Similar to April results, May 2022 sales were down on a monthly and annual basis. Conversely, active listings at the end of May were up on a monthover-month and year-over-year basis. More balanced market conditions have provided buyers with more negotiating power. As a result, while benchmark and average home prices were up substantially compared to last year, selling prices trended lower on a month-over-month basis.

Read the full report on TRREB website!

 


 

The following data is a comparison between May 2022 and May 2021 numbers, and is current as of June 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

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INFOGRAPHICS: April 2022 TRREB Toronto Market Reports

GTA REALTORS® RELEASE APRIL STATS

The Greater Toronto Area (GTA) housing market continued its adjustment to higher borrowing costs, with the number of transactions down on a monthly and annual basis. As has been the case with previous rate tightening cycles, some home buyers have moved to the sidelines to determine how they will reposition themselves in the marketplace given the higher rate environment and related impact on affordability.

“Based on the trends observed in the April housing market, it certainly appears that the Bank of Canada is achieving its goal of slowing consumer spending as it fights high inflation. Negotiated mortgage rates rose sharply over the past four weeks, prompting some buyers to delay their purchase. Moving forward, it will be interesting to see the balance the Bank of Canada strikes between combatting inflation versus stunting economic growth and related government revenues as we continue to recover from and pay for pandemic-related programs,” said TRREB President Kevin Crigger.

GTA REALTORS® reported 8,008 homes sold through TRREB’s MLS® System in April 2022 – a 41.2 per cent decrease compared to April 2021 and a 27 per cent decrease compared to March 2022. On a year-over-year basis, the decline in sales was greater in the ‘905’ area code regions surrounding Toronto, particularly for detached houses.

Read the full report on TRREB website!

 


 

The following data is a comparison between April 2022 and April 2021 numbers, and is current as of May 2022. For last month’s numbers, check out our previous infographic!

Or follow this link for all our TREB / TRREB Infographics!

 

Download Printable Version – April 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 1

 

Download Printable Version – April 2022 TRREB, Toronto Market Report Part 2

 

 

 

 


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